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The final headcount can go up but not down: so keep it conservative and add later
Four weeks before the wedding you give catering a final headcount. Once submitted, most contracts state you can add but not subtract.
What that rule means
If you report 120 people and only 105 show up, you still have to pay for those extra 15 meals anyway.
The other way round, report 105 and 120 turn up, and you can usually add (possibly at a surcharge, but at least people eat).
So the risks are asymmetric: over-reporting is a certain loss, under-reporting is a fixable inconvenience.
How to arrive at the number
Don't use "invitations sent × some acceptance rate." Use actual responses:
- RSVP deadline (3–4 weeks out, see item 37 of the checklist)
- Leave at least a week to chase non-responders
- Take "confirmed attending" as your base
- For those who haven't replied, estimate conservativelyNever assume they will all end up showing up.
If your RSVP deadline isn't earlier than your headcount confirmation date, you'll be forced to guess blindly, which is why the sequence of this timeline can't be wrong (see item 37 of the checklist).
The estimating problem at a Chinese wedding
Two biases in opposite directions, both to be considered:
Upward: uninvited arrivals
Within Chinese social norms, bringing an unannounced companion or an extra child isn't unusual. Older relatives especially may feel one more person can't matter.
The response: hold a few flexible seats (see item 49 of the checklist) and build a little of that possibility into the number.
Downward: variables for relatives from Taiwan
Relatives flying from Taiwan carry far more variables than local guests, such as visas, flights, health issues, or sudden family emergencies. Even if they RSVP, it does not guarantee they will actually make it in the end.
The response: estimate that group's attendance conservatively.
The two biases run in opposite directions and partly cancel, but don't assume they cancel exactly.
Don't forget the people who aren't on the guest list
Also to be counted:
- Vendor mealsThen there are vendor crew like the photographer, videographer, DJ, coordinator, and hair and makeup artist, which can easily add up to 5 to 10 people for a single wedding (see item 30 of the checklist).
- YourselvesIt sounds absurd, but people really do leave themselves off.
Ask catering: "Do vendor meals count toward the final headcount? Is there a cheaper vendor meal option?"
Meal choices go in at the same time
The final headcount cannot just be a single total; it usually needs details like how many vegetarian meals, kids' meals, dietary restrictions, and allergy requirements. That is why your RSVP form must have those two fields (see item 95 of the checklist), or you will end up calling everyone individually to follow up later.
How much you can still adjust
Ask explicitly: "After the final count, what's the latest we can add, and at what surcharge?" Some venues allow additions 3–5 days out, some don't. Knowing that flexibility is what lets you report conservatively.
In one line
Keep your headcount estimate conservative and remember to include vendor meals. Over-reporting means money you definitely have to spend, while under-reporting is usually recoverable.